What you need to know: Big System Collapse! or not

Here are early warning signals–typically not recognized–that the major critical infrastructures upon which we survive are operating at, or beyond, their performance edge:

  • The infrastructure’s control room is in prolonged just-for-now performance, which means operators there find it more difficult to maneuver out of a corner in which they find themselves. (“Yes, yes, I know this is risky, but just keep it online for now!”)
  • These real-time control operators are working outside their de jure or de facto performance bandwidths, in effect having to work outside their unique domain of competence.
  • The decision rules operators reliably followed before are turned inside out: “Prove we can do that” becomes “Prove we can’t!;” “Ensure a capital cushion to protect against unexpected losses” becomes “From now on, manage for expected losses!”
  • Real-time operational redesigns (control room “workarounds”) of inevitably defective equipment, premature software, and incomplete procedures are not effective as before.
  • Their skills as reliability professionals in identifying systemwide patterns and undertaking what-if scenario become attenuated or no longer apply.
  • Instead of being driven by dread of the next major failure ahead, control room professionals are told that their track record up to now is to be benchmark for system reliability ahead.

One thought on “What you need to know: Big System Collapse! or not

  1. Hi Emery,
    hope that you are well despite the circumstances. We will confirm soon about the workshop on digitalisation. We will go digital if needed for people who can’t travel.
    Biden’s recent election was a relief for a lot of people beyond your borders you know (at least in Europe)…much easier with China, we know who already who is the winner…
    Thanks for the post, when ‘just for now’ becomes the ‘new normal’. This is a tricky one, I often observe similar situations in companies, never knowing exactly when it will break down (or if it will), and the extent of consequences before management do something about it…
    Kind regards

    Envoyé de mon iPhone


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