Links to publications based in this blog (newly added)

**When Complex is as Simple as it Gets: Guide for recasting policy and management in the Anthropocene (Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, 2023)

https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/18008

**Making the Most of Mess: Reliability and Policy in Today’s Management Challenges (Duke University Press, 2013)

https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/30263/1/648154.pdf

**“A National Academy of Reliable Infrastructure Management.” Issues in Science and Technology, August 3 (2021)

https://issues.org/national-academy-reliable-infrastructure-management-roe/

**“Fourth of July Democracy: An Epistolary Exchange and a Modest Proposal.” Hedgehog Review (2023)

https://hedgehogreview.com/web-features/thr/posts/fourth-of-july-democracy

**A New Policy Narrative for Pastoralism? Pastoralists as Reliability Professionals and Pastoralist Systems as Infrastructure,” STEPS Working Paper 113, STEPS Centre: Brighton, UK (2020)

https://steps-centre.org/publication/a-new-policy-narrative-for-pastoralism/

**”Control, Manage or Cope? A Politics for Risks, Uncertainties and Unknown-Unknowns.” Chapter 5 in The Politics of Uncertainty: Changes of Transformation (eds. Ian Scoones and Andy Stirling). Routledge, UK. (2020)

https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/16532

**”Policy Messes and their Management.” Policy Sciences (2016).

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11077-016-9258-9

Thinking infrastructurally about: Nimbyism; migration; system robustness; cognitive reversals; 9/11; finance; efficiency versus equality; societal dread; crisis leadership; generative AI; and self-organizing in emergencies (last topic just added)

If you were to read widely in contemporary political theory and activist literature, you might come away thinking that the limits of political action are set by what is thinkable, by conceptual modes and models. To be sure, epistemes and structures of perception and counterperception matter a great deal, and conceptual work and material structures are mutually embedded within one another. But as a matter of fact, the limits of political action are set by what is possible within the zones created by infrastructure

J. Mohorčich (2022). “People die in six ways and each is politics: Infrastructure and the possible.” Contemporary Political Theory 21(2): 175–197 (accessed online at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8414030/; my bold)

Below are seven more examples of issues reframed through the lens of critical infrastructures.


1. Thinking infrastructurally about Nimbyism

I

They believe that climate change is happening but don’t want those wind-farms off their coastline. Those driving electric cars are opposed by those demanding no more cars, period. Those who demand more renewable energy here are among those opposing construction of new electric transmission lines from renewables there.

The commonplace is to insist tradeoffs are involved. But tradeoffs aren’t the only or even priority starting point.

II

How so? Start with an observation in an online New York Times,

While China is the world’s biggest adopter of clean energy, it also remains the world’s biggest user of fossil fuels, particularly coal. “We have to hold these two things, which can seem contradictory, in our heads at the same time,” [another Times correspondent] said. “China is pulling the world in two directions.”

This may not be a contradiction so much as a transition.

German Lopez in The New York Time’s online Morning, August 14 2023

That is: What if the above NIMBYisms are not contradictions so much as part of transitions underway? What if the oppositions aren’t stalemates but are already leading to something different?

III

One such reinterpretation involves the transfer of renewable energy between and across different electricity grids in the US.

While there is a pressing need for new transmission lines, that new construction would add to a base of inter-regional electricity transmission, including for clean energy. True, how much of that transitioning to renewables is going on is hard to document. True, the regional grids are fragmented and true, more renewable energy is needed because the grid itself is vital to other critical infrastructures, like water and telecommunications, relying on it.

IV

If so, then what?

Take a case where city residents objecting to wind-farms off their coastline are served by a grid not inter-regionally connected to clean energy sources. One response to this Nimbyism would be to hike up the electricity rates of city residents: not just because they are forgoing clean energy but also because their rates for the interconnected water, cellphone and transportation reinforce that choice to forego.

Transitioning to clean energy in my back-yard is already in the front-yard of inter-regional energy infrastructures.


2. Thinking infrastructurally about migration

I

Thinking infrastructurally about migrants typically short-cuts to the stresses and strains they bode for a site’s infrastructures, i.e., the added demands they impose on water supplies, transportation, energy, healthcare and the social protection systems, be that “site” a city, region or nation.

Attempts at itemizing the benefit side of having migrants–by virtue of added economic growth and tax revenues–look more and more feeble these days in the face of calls for degrowth and populist pressures against more government.

Shift this frame of reference to infrastructures, however, and matters look different.

II

Historically, diasporic immigrations worldwide–e.g., the transoceanic slave trades–have had their own irreversible impacts. One such irreversibility has been that immigrants and infrastructures have developed together, with “worldwide” as indeed the appropriate level and unit of analysis.

Rather than migrants as a priori stressors on existing infrastructures, the more realistic point of departure is the evolution of: water supplies with respect to migrants, energy supplies with respect to migrants, telecommunications with respect to migrants, and so on. Indeed, infrastructures and (im)migrants render each other visible and tangible–unavoidably really-existing for themselves and the rest of us–in ways that the noticeably immaterial labor of speechifying anti-immigrant politicians and pro-immigrant advocates does not.

III

So what?

In reality, pro- and anti-immigration policies have rarely been articulated in practical terms when it comes to shifts in the many different configurations of interconnected critical infrastructures, worldwide or not.

The idealized concatenation of sequential and reciprocal interconnectivity–migrants leave home and arrive at their destination, and once there, interact with others–has been (if it weren’t always) much more complicated. Mediated interconnectivities of traffickers and remittances along with pooled interconnectivities (think: EU directives on border management) have complicated matters even more.

For example, the focus on shifting interconnectivities takes on increasing importance in the digitalization of border management, not least of which in the operation of Frontex, the EU’s primary agency in this area. It is argued that, via digital technologies (including AI), national borders are being securitized and militarized. Surveillance is broadened and changing majorly. “Europe has long been implementing border and migratory policies that focus on externalising European borders as far south as Senegal or as far east as Azerbaijan” records the same report (https://datajusticeproject.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/30/2023/08/Risking-Lives-report.pdf). Another report finds:

The removal of rescue boats and the increase of the utilization of drones is used by Frontex to detect and prevent migratory flows at an early stage, as migrant vessels are recognized in pre-frontier areas. In fact, the Frontex Situation Centre is a unit in charge of monitoring the external borders and the pre-frontier areas of the EU (European Parliament, 2018). The investment in drones has increased considerably in parallel with the deterrence of external rescue operations and the withdrawal of some naval missions in the Mediterranean, as it happened in the case of the Operation Sophia. Therefore, vessels that are capable of helping migrants and asylum seekers are replaced by drones that can only observe. In consequence, the agency has not the obligation to intervene neither rescue them.

https://centredelas.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/WP_DronesFrontex_ENG.pdf

And yet, the complexity remains when the focus is on digital interconnectivities. A third report concludes:

Overall, the wide range of applications for new technologies implies that each one should be investigated independently, taking into consideration its development context and the unique requirements of the stakeholders who develop and use them. This report, therefore, debunks a totalising, black-and-white perception of the uses of new technologies. New technologies can be used for various purposes ranging from including migrants’ and refugees’ preferences in their settlement processes (as in the case of some preference matching tools) to profiling them through risk assessments or monitoring them through invasive tools such as electronic monitoring. While the former can benefit migrants by having a say in their migration and settlement trajectory, the latter can have extremely harmful impacts on them. It is, therefore, crucial to examine each use of new technology in its own right, considering its design and implementation processes and their legal and social impacts.

https://reliefweb.int/report/world/automating-immigration-and-asylum-uses-new-technologies-migration-and-asylum-governance-europe

Indeed, digital surveillance and recognition systems are very much a mixed bag of shifting pros and cons at the case level (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20539517211006744).

Yes, these cases of shifts in interconnectivity can well be inter-related, but by definition they cannot be reduced to one and the same case (there are, after all, separate nodes in even the most tightly -coupled network.)


3. Thinking infrastructurally “system robustness” from the perspective of repair and maintenance of large socio-technical systems

The last thing many people think is that infrastructures are fragile. If anything, they are massive structures, where “heavy” and “sturdy” come to mind. But the fact that they not only fail in systemwide disasters, but that they also require routine (and nonroutine) maintenance and repair as they depreciate, requires us to take the fragility features also seriously.

Fortunately, there are those who write on infrastructure fragility from a broadly socio-cultural perspective rather than the socio-technical one with which I am familiar:

For all of their impressive heaviness, infrastructures are, at the end of the day, often remarkably light and fragile creatures—one or two missed inspections, suspect data points, or broken connectors from disaster. That spectacular failure is not continually engulfing the systems around us is a function of repair: the ongoing work by which “order and meaning in complex sociotechnical systems are maintained and transformed, human value is preserved and extended, and the complicated work of fitting to the varied circumstances of organizations, systems, and lives is accomplished” . . . .

It reminds us of the extent to which infrastructures are earned and re-earned on an ongoing, often daily, basis. It also reminds us (modernist obsessions notwithstanding) that staying power, and not just change, demands explanation. Even if we ignore this fact and the work that it indexes when we talk about infrastructure, the work nonetheless goes on. Where it does not, the ineluctable pull of decay and decline sets in and infrastructures enter the long or short spiral into entropy that—if untended—is their natural fate.

Jackson, S. (2015) Repair. Theorizing the contemporary: The infrastructure toolbox. Cultural Anthropology website. Available at: https://culanth.org/fieldsights/repair

The recognition that these systems have to be managed–a part of which is repair and maintenance–in order to operate is welcome. Not only is the observed one of a better-than-expected operation (beyond design and technology) because of repair and maintenance. It is also because real-time system operators have to actively manage in order to preclude or otherwise avoid major events or errors from happening.

What to my knowledge has not been pursued in the sociotechnical literature is that specific focus on repair, as the above author continues:

Attending to repair can also change how we approach questions of value and valuation as it pertains to the infrastructures around us. Repair reminds us that the loop between infrastructure, value, and meaning is never fully closed at points of design, but represents an ongoing and sometimes fragile accomplishment. While artifacts surely have politics (or can), those politics are rarely frozen at the moment of design, instead unfolding across the lifespan of the infrastructure in question: completed, tweaked, and sometimes transformed through repair. Thus, if there are values in design there are also values in repair—and good ethical and political reasons to attend not only to the birth of infrastructures, but also to their care and feeding over time.

That the values expressed through repair (others would say, “expressed as the practices of actual repair”) need to be understood as thoroughly as the practices of actual design reflects, I believe, a major research gap in the sociotechnical literature with which I am familiar.


4. Thinking infrastructurally about cognitive reversals in complex organizations

I

What else can we do, senior executives and company boards tell themselves, when our business is on the line? “We have to risk failure in order to succeed!”

But what if the business is one of the many critical infrastructures privately owned or managed Here, if upper management seeks to implement risk-taking changes, they rely on middle-level reliability professionals, who, when they take risks, do so in order to reduce the chances of systemwide failure. To reliability-seeking professionals, the risk-taking activities of their upper management look like a form of suicide for fear of death.

When professionals are compelled to reverse practices they know and find to be reliable, the results have been deadly:

• Famously in the Challenger accident, engineers had been required up to the day of that flight to show why the shuttle could launch; on that day, the decision rule was reversed to one showing why launch couldn’t take place.

• Once it was good bank practice to hold capital as a cushion against unexpected losses; capital security arrangements now mandate they hold capital against losses expected from their high-risk lending. Mortgage brokers traditionally made money on the performance and quality of mortgages they made; in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, their compensation changed to one based on the volume of loans originated but passed on.

• Originally, the Deepwater Horizon rig had been drilling an exploration well; that status changed when on April 15 2010 BP applied to the U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) to convert the site to a production well. The MMS approved by the change. The explosion occurred five days later.

In brief, decision-rule reversals have led to system failures and more: NASA was never the same; we are still trying to get out of the 2008 financial mess and the Great Recession that followed; and the MMS disappeared from the face of the earth.

II

“But, that’s a strawman,” someone counters. “Of course, we wouldn’t deliberately push reliability professionals into unstudied conditions, if we could avoid it.”

Really?

The oft-recommended approach, Be-Prepared-for-All-Hazards, looks first like the counsel of wisdom. It however is dangerous if requiring emergency and related organizations to cooperate in ways they currently cannot, using information they will not have or cannot obtain, for all manner of interconnected scenarios, which if treated with equal seriousness, produce considerable modeling and analytic uncertainties, let alone manifest impracticalities.


5. Thinking infrastructurally about 9/11

You are on one of the upper floors of a huge skyscraper, looking out on the morning. That is Reality I: You are the observing subject looking out at reality. After a point, you realize that dot in the distance is actually a plane headed toward you, this morning in the World Trade Center. That is Reality II: You become the object of reality, in that grip of the real, and no longer observer only.

There is, nevertheless, Reality III. This is of the air traffic controllers during 9/11. Neither the observer of the first reality nor the object of second, the professionals achieved the unprecedented without incident that day. They were instructed to land all commercial and general aviation aircraft in the United States—some 4,500 aircraft—and did so.

Without overstretching the point, so too do we demand that professionals land those water, electricity, transportation, telecommunications, and many more critical services every day without major incident.


6. Thinking infrastructurally about finance

I

When it comes to electricity infrastructure, the drive to high reliability is driven by dread associated with loss of containment at a nuclear generator or islanding of the entire electric transmission grid. Large irreplaceable dams, whether upriver of settlement or not, are not to be overtopped.

Nuclear explosions occur, dams are overtopped, and grids do separate and island, but these events are rare–rare because of their management beyond technology and design–and when the events do happen they serve to reinforce their must-never-happen dread.

II

In contrast, financial services have “should-never-happen events”—bank runs should be avoided and financial crises shouldn’t happen. The standard of operating reliability is not one of precluding financial crises from ever happening, but rather of treating these crises (1) as avoidable though not always, or (2) as inevitable (“busts are part of market capitalism”) or at least (3) compensable after the fact (as in the pre-2008 assurance that it’s better to clean up after a financial bubble bursts than trying to manage it beforehand).

Not having reliability of financial services based on must-never-happen events has major consequences for standards of economic stability and growth.

III

At the macro level, there are two different standards of economic reliability: The retrospective standard holds the economy is performing reliably when there have been no major shocks or disruptions from then to now. The prospective standard holds the economy is reliable only until the next major shock.

Why does the difference matter? In practical terms, the economy is prospectively only as reliable as its critical infrastructures are reliable, right now when it matters for economic productivity. Indeed, if economy and productivity were equated only with recognizing and capitalizing on retrospective patterns and trends, economic policymakers and managers could never be reliable prospectively.

IV

For example, a retrospective orientation to where we are today is to examine economic and financial patterns and trends since, say, 2008; a prospective standard would be to ensure that–at a minimum–the 2008 financial recovery could be replicated, if not bettered, for the next global financial crisis.

The problem with the latter–do no worse in the financial services sector than what happened in the last (2008) crisis–is that benchmark would have to reflect a must-never-happen event for the sector going forward.

What, though, are the chances it would be the first-ever must-never-happen event among all of that sectors’ should-never-happen ones?


7. Thinking infrastructurally about “efficiency versus equality

I

A good deal has been written arguing that economic efficiency and equality in economic well-being can move in the same direction (e.g., healthier people are more economically productive). The dominant view, nevertheless, remains The Big Tradeoff: more equality means less efficiency, all else constant.

This is altogether curious from the perspective of policy analysis and public management: Why would anyone take a movement in efficiency (or equality) to be caused by a movement in the other rather than caused by some intervening variable affecting both efficiency and equality independently?

II

More institutionally-informed economists say they do talk about intervening variables, at least in the form of secure property rights that underpin gains in economic efficiency. Yet those are no more than second-order considerations. For when economists talk about the necessity of “secure property rights,” they rarely see any need to underscore a hugely reliable contract law, insurance and title registration infrastructure in place and “always on.”

Could it be, for example, that consumption is less unequally distributed than income precisely because critical infrastructures have been more reliable in the delivery and distribution of goods and services than they have been in the creation and generation of income opportunities for those doing the consuming?


8. Thinking infrastructurally about societal dread

Although not first thought of as such, critical infrastructures are a key institutional mechanism for the distinguishing and dispersing social values with respect to societal dread and fear.

Critical infrastructures instantiate social values not abstractly but as differences taken into account when societal reliability and safety matter now. These differences—more properly, differentiated knowledge bases about and orientations to reliability and safety at the event and system levels—are reconciled by infrastructure control rooms (where they exist) in real time and in the name of ensuring high reliability (including safety), then and there.

I

Trust is a good example of how a social value related to dread and fear is specified and differentiated by infrastructures. Broader discussions about “trust requires shared values” miss the fact that team situation awareness of systemwide reliability operators is much more about knowledge management, distributed cognition, and keeping a shared bubble of system understanding than it is about “trust” as a singularly important social value.

For that matter, distrust is as core as trust. One reason operators are reliable is that they actively distrust the future will be stable or reliable in the absence of the system’s vigilant real-time management. There has been much less discussion of the positive function of distrust as a social value. In contrast, “distrust” often takes the adjective, “polarizing.”

II

So too for “dread and fear” Widespread social dread–as in the societal dread that drives the reliability management of very hazardous infrastructures–is almost always taken to be negative. Here, though, dread also has a positive function.

Every day, nuclear plant explosions, airline crashes, financial meltdowns, massive water-supply collapse—and more—are avoided that would have happened had not operators and managers in these large systems prevented their occurrence.

Why? Because societal dread is so intense that these events must be precluded from happening on an active basis. (It might be better to say that we don’t altogether know “societal dread” unless we observe how knowledgeable professionals operate and manage complex critical infrastructures.)

There is such fear of what would happen if large interconnected electricity, telecommunications, water, transportation, financial services and like did fail that it is better to manage them than not have them.

III

All of us of course must wonder at the perversity of this. But that is the function of this dread, and distrust for that matter, isn’t it? Namely: to push us further in probing what it means to privilege social and individual reliability and safety over other values and desires. We are meant to ask: What would it look like in world where such reliability and safety are not so privileged?

For the answer to that question is manifestly evident: Most of the planet already lives in that world of unreliability and little safety. We’re meant to ask, precisely because the answer is that clear.


9. Thinking infrastructurally about crisis leadership

When it comes to occasions where leadership matters as in crises, the literature is typically top-down (leaders direct) or bottom-up (self-organizing crisis response), where networks are largely described as vertical (hierarchical) or horizontal (laterally interacting leaders, official and unofficial).

A third category should be added: infrastructure control rooms, and not just in terms of Incident Command Centers during the emergency but already-existing large-system control centers whose staff continue to operate during the emergency.

Paul Schulman and I argue infrastructure control rooms are a unique organizational formation meriting society protection, even during (especially during) turbulence in their task environments. They have evolved to take hard systemwide decisions under difficult conditions that require a decision, now. Adding this third category is to insist on real-time large-system management as the prevention of major failures and thus crises that would have happened had not control room managers, operators and support staff prevented them.

More, a major reason for this high reliability management in a large sociotechnical system is to ensure that when errors do happen, they are less likely to be because of this management than to have been forced by other factors, particularly exogenous shocks. Infrastructure management for systemwide reliability and safety seeks to isolate the field of blame and root causes, not least of which relate to “leadership errors.”


10. Thinking infrastructurally about generative AI

A joint statement has been issued by the Center for AI Safety: “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”

Famously, this single sentence was signed by more than 350 AI experts and public figures. Now, of course, we cannot nor should we dismiss the actual and potential harms of the artificial intelligence scenarios they have in mind.

But, just as clearly, these 350 people must be among the last people on Earth you’d turn to for pandemic and nuclear war scenarios of sufficient infrastructure granularity against which to appraise their AI crisis scenarios.


11. Thinking infrastructurally about self-organizing in emergencies

I

Those who study major earthquakes, tsunamis, or other place-based catastrophes often remark about how remaining populations self-organize immediately afterwards by way of saving lives and providing what relief they can on their own.

What is less recognized, I believe, is the institutional niche (if any) that critical infrastructures hold in disaster locations and situations.

II

In some cases, the self-organization takes place because there is little government presence, infrastructural or otherwise, beforehand let alone as the disaster unfolds. If there is electricity or tap water beforehand, it is intermittent. Hospitals remain few or too far. In these situations, the only thing between you and death is yourselves. One thinks of the media attention given to earthquakes in low- and middle-income countries.

Self-organization, however, is also observed in disaster situations that destroy longstanding critical infrastructures in high income countries. Increased lateral communication and improvisational behavior are also witnessed among relief works, front-line infrastructure staff and emergency managers,

I want to suggest that self-organization in these latter situations differs in at least one catalytic respect.

A major part of that self-organization of field crews and the public is to provide initial restoration of some kind of electricity, water, road, communications and other so-called lifeline services, like medical care. Indeed, what better acknowledgement of society’s major institutional niche for interconnected critical infrastructures than the immediate emergency response of restoring the backbone infrastructures of electricity, water, telecoms and roads.

III

So what?

Two photographs show people organizing themselves to remove the rubble outside. If I’m right, the function served in each could differ significantly, depending on role that reliable critical infrastructures have had there up to the disaster. It’s important to know that this picture, and not that one, is of removing rubble from the only road to the water treatment plant, for example.

Why, again, is that important?

These days we’re told it’s important to dismantle capitalism. Well, major disasters are frequently dismantling infrastructures, thin or thick on the ground, and infrastructures are always treated as part of capitalism writ large and modernities writ small. If capitalism has colonized crisis into every nook and cranny of the world, it’s hardly useful then in explaining the presence or absence of the institutional niche just mentioned. You’re better advised to look to complex adaptive systems theory, rather than power theories, for insights into real-time responses and their immediate aftermath.


For more on the limitations of theories of power (direct, indirect, dispersed), please see Part III of When Complex is as Simple as it Gets: Guide for Recasting Policy and Management in the Anthropocene). See also section II.28 of the Guide discussing other examples of “thinking infrastructurally”.

It’s the Druids again!

My wife and I blame the above remonstrance on Midsomer Murders.

We’ve watched every episode, all the seasons, but the most memorable was the one with a modern-day coven of Druids. “Where did they come from?,” both of us wondered aloud. Since then,tv mystery series with modern-day witches and priest magicians have been met with, “It’s the Druids again!”

I’m now trying to train myself to remonstrate just this way every time I hear or read about Trump.

The problem is that I’ve spent the last part of my professional career arguing and demonstrating that “complex is as simple as it gets.” But here is Trump who is quite simply a massive travesty.

What to do?

One answer is to defamiliarize the public man into an institutional brand. As the brand for a particular kind of politics, Trump™ highlights “the inherent contradictions between individual and institution underlying their brand identities” (https://yorkspace.library.yorku.ca/server/api/core/bitstreams/0f6826d5-4858-4ccb-936d-cce1c98faf01/content).

And these institutions have been with us for a long time. “Yup. It’s the Druids again.”

Several disciplinary divides over reliability management of infrastructures

I keep being told infrastructures are complex technologies, even though they’re manifestly socio-technical, and not just because the technologies have to be managed (think: risk as socially constructed).

We’re to believe regular operations are routine operations, but if routine means invariant, there is nothing invariant about normal infrastructure operations.

In the view of engineers, system reliability is probabilistic, even though control room operators act deterministically, i.e., there’s a point at which system reliability cannot be traded off against other factors or else people die.

I was assured that for reasons of tractability, the modeling of infrastructure operations has two stages, normal and failed. In actual practice, the temporary disruption of systemwide services–far less modeled–identifies singularly relevant conditions for returning to normal operations or tipping into failure.

Engineers said the probability of infrastructure failure during post-disaster recovery of assets and operations was higher than the probability of failure during normal operations. Think: re-energizing line by line during a table-top Black Start exercise. Actually, nonmeasurable uncertainties–nothing like probabilities–are faced by operators post-disaster (the Black Start exercises for electric transmission infrastructureassume no asset destruction, as improbable as that is).

Consider the frequent “restore.” What’s it with respect to: interrupted services restored back to normal? Or services to be initially restored after major system failure? Or key equipment or facilities restored after a non-routine outage as part of normal maintenance and repair activities? Restore is one of most ambiguous terms in infrastructure studies, very much dependent on where you sit and where you stand.

A really big question in earthquake management: Who’ll be available and what will they be left to work with?

Two things in retrospect strike me especially, and the most empathic of my impressions. . .The first of these was the rapidity of the improvisation of order out of chaos.

William James, psychologist and philosopher, on witnessing first-hand the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and immediate aftermath

–A magnitude 9 (M9) earthquake off the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest is not an impossible-to-predict event. To the contrary, it’s being predicted all the time. What’s impossible to predict are the specific consequences on shore, apart from phrases like “unimaginably awful.”

–Having to improvise in these circumsgances will be like breathing: “breathing is not a doing or an action as much as it is a not-being-able-to-not-do-so.”

–In a way, M9 scenarios are so catastrophic that certainty increases with respect to responding to questions like, “What percentage of electricity is likely to be restored in 3 days?” Answer, well, about zero.

–Infrastructures being vulnerable create specific dependencies and responsibilities (e.g., with respect to evacuation), not just a network of cross-cutting interdependencies, summed up as “relatedness.”

–Interviewee comments—”we’ll be under pressure to get the plant up and running asap,” “our people won’t be able to get to the control room because they trying to save their families,” and “we’ll need to evacuate as many people as possible”—serve a key indicator that not only has techno-side of infrastructures been destroyed, but the socio-side of these large sociotechnical systems has also taken a very severe hit.

–Mitigation is a kind of preparedness and prevention that you more readily expect of the responder culture and not of a longer-term repurposing culture for replacing infrastructure.

–Alfred North Whitehead coined “the fallacy of misplaced concreteness,” i.e., when we confuse or conflate an abstract concept for something concrete and empirical.

Emergency management has its own fallacy of misplaced concreteness: as if bridges and assets are more real than the processes for emergency management and preparedness.

For example, when the aim is to shorten post-disaster restoration and recovery time, mitigation of physical structures beforehand is frequently taken as the priority. Even more a priority, some say, than having in place decision-making processes about avoiding vulnerabilities and errors associated with inter-infrastructural connectivities up to and through the disaster.

–We were told that the most beneficial mitigation, in utilitarian terms (greatest benefit across the greatest number), would be two-week readiness across the population in advance of disaster. We can’t even do that, how then do all the other pre-disaster mitigation?

–What a on-point confirmation of the centrality of high reliability management in infrastructures than the principal immediate emergency response of restoring the backbone infrastructure of electricity, water, telecoms and roads. Keeping reliable and safe is a central tendency, a reversion to the mean, an example of the institutional niche with which society holds critical infrastructures.

–Isn’t “We’ve never experienced anything like an M9 and can’t predict. . .” misleading if left at that? Isn’t it better first to ask, What’s your emergency management track record when it comes to “the biggest fire, or flood, or ice storm. . . the state has ever seen so far”?

–A positive track record with respect to emergency management is of course no guarantee of effectiveness when it comes to the unfolding M9 events, but neither is the retrospective record of no major failures a guarantee of high reliability management ahead even in normal operations.

–It is one thing to insist on unimaginable impacts arising from an M9 earthquake, but quite another to leave out infrastructures in imagining the impacts (e.g., treating wastewater as a low priority in inter infrastructural impact assessments).

–The other side of “everything’s connected” is “nothing can be completely reduced to something else.” As in: “It would be crazy for the regulator to do the work of the utilities, when the latter are the experts.” (For example, “we can’t tell them where to de-energize lines,” a regulator told us.)

When good enough does wonders

Under what conditions is good enough a reliably good-enough?

I

The best-known gloss must be that of D.W. Winnicott, the psychotherapist, when describing the good-enough mother. The good-enough mother is not perfect, and that is a Very Good Thing. At baby’s birth and for a period thereafter, the good-enough mother is one who manages to be there when child needs mother. So available and in sync with the child’s needs is mother that the child at some point feels it created mother–indeed, created the perfect mother. Over time, the real mother—and this is where her “good enough” comes in—disillusions the child that “mother” is its very own creation.

Winnicott describes what the good-enough mother does as “management,” “provision” and “reliability.” One of his descriptions illustrates the point for a specialist audience of his:

One cannot help becoming a parent-figure whenever one is doing anything professionally reliable. You are nearly all, I expect engaged in some sort of professionally reliable thing, and in that limited area you behave much better than you do at home, and your clients depend on you and get to lean on you.

II

The reliability professionals in large critical infrastructures face the dilemma of good-enough parents: How do they disabuse us, the consumers of water, electricity and other vital services, that our being better off is now more up to us than before and in ways we really haven’t yet appreciated?

How to reinforce in us that the declines in services underway aren’t “declines” any more than is the reality-check that we did not create mother on our own? If the control room operators we interviewed are representative, reliability professionals are the last people to persuade us out of our fever dreams. They think we’re adults.

III

What, though, to say to those who argue good enough is no longer possible?

If so, then the answer is crystal-clear: Our infrastructures are not headed for catastrophe. They—and we—are in the middle of that disaster, unfolding right before our eyes.

But is that happening? Are they physically crashing right before your eyes?

Yes, of course, the pressures on critical systems are real and threatening; but, there is a world of difference between having no guarantees for future reliability and insisting that the failed future is here for the rest of now.

Anyway, there is something very odd about supposing entire systems of production are failing right now before our eyes, notwithstanding that their various technologies are constantly replaced before they have had time to physically collapse and permanently fail.

“What are sustainable ways to anticipate future environmental crises while coping with the ongoing ones?”

As I see it, the benefit of thinking this question in terms of path dependencies (plural) is not only that their durations differ, but the with-respect-to’s are also highly variable. Path dependencies already are commercial or institutional or legal or technological or behavioral or climatic–and more.

I

To my mind, the value-added of First differentiate path dependencies! is considerable. The three most interanimating of importance are:

1. Further differentiation forces attention in environmental crisis management on comparing and contrasting the “with respect to what?” With respect to this as distinct from that path dependency? These versus those? And if so, attention first here rather than there? . . .

2. Further differentiation forces management attention to the specific failure scenarios of interest and the levels of granularity at which the scenarios are said to be actionable. At least two types of failure scenarios are of interest here: those for how the crisis unfolds and those for how the crisis responses fail.

Specifying action-levels of granularity is also important because the answer to the “What happens next?” question so central to on-the-ground crisis management MUST be more than “What happens is, well, more path dependence. . .”

3. This means “cases of interest” must as well be differentiated from the get-go, e.g., “cases out there in reality” as distinct from, say, “the case emerging from your interaction with issues of concern” (Charles Ragin’s typology of cases, for example)

II

So what, practically?

If the question is:

What are reasonable and feasible ways to anticipate future sustainability crises while coping with the ongoing ones?

then my answer derived from the preceding is another question;

If we can’t differentiate path dependencies by better focusing on case-level, variably granular failure scenarios actionable in and for environmental crisis management, how are we ever to better anticipate future sustainability crises while coping with the ongoing ones?

We may be as equal as the teeth of a comb, but, oh!, all the different combs

–All the smothering paste of macro-principles and generalizations cannot stop the bubbling up and surfacing of those contingent factors that differentiate inequalities for the purposes of really-existing policymaking and management–societal, political, economic, historical, cultural, legal, geographical, governmental, psychological, neurological, technological, religious, and more.

–So what?

The World Bank estimates over 1.5 billion people globally do not have bank accounts, many being the rural poor. Yet having bank accounts ties us into a global financialized capitalism. What, then, is to have more value? The rural poor with bank accounts or not? Integrated even more into global capitalism or not?

There are, of course, those who insist such is not a binary choice. Surely, though, bank accounts work in some instances and even then differently so.

–Insisting on case-by-case looks to be weak beer. That is, until you realize the self-harm inflicted when political possibilities are foreclosed by policy narrativea that assume the world is everywhere and equally so colonized by capitalisms and their inequalities.

Avoiding China’s infrastructure vulnerabilities and errors

Count me as one long arguing for more in-country researchers to study China’s high-speed rail (HSR)–a system far more ambitious than other nations combined. The aim: to identify HSR practices with respect to system reliability and safety management in the hope of learning more cross-nationally. HSR accidents occur, and big ones, but China’s system is reported to have been managed with high levels of reliability and safety in the last decade.

I

Now I want to suggest extending that research agenda to the management of the interconnections between HSR systems and other major critical infrastructures in China.

HSR is part of China’s transportation network, which has been estimated to also include5 million kilometres of road and 230 major airports. How does HSR interface with them? HSR requires electricity and it’s also reported that China deploys over 275 gigawatts of wind-power capacity, by way of example. What are its interconnections with HSR? HSR includes a great deal of automation and software. Yet according to one source, by the beginning of 2024 only some 40 of the over 235 large language models (LLM) introduced in China had been approved by the regulators. How does the under-regulation of generative AI affect HSR and its other infrastructure interconnections, if at all?

II

The point of the preceding scatter-shot questions is not to highlight the numbers—there must be much better estimates out there–but rather the need for a frameworks centered on infrastructure interconnectivity that guide what sorts of questions to ask and answer in the first place and by way of priority.

As I neither speak nor read Mandarin and am unable to access the research and modeling of Chinese researchers on this matter, I offer below what is hopefully a suggestive alternative: insights from recent research Paul Schulman and I have been undertaking on the interconnected lifeline infrastructures of roads, telecoms, water and electricity.

Combined with earlier research, our framework covers multiple modes of infrastructure operations, including those during normal, disrupted, and failed periods, followed by immediate emergency response and initial service restoration, longer-term recovery, and the establishment of a new normal (if there is to be one),

Below focuses on the framework’s implications for “immediate emergency response and initial service restoration,” a topic of international concern, and not just in China. Of specific focus are “known errors” and “infrastructure vulnerabilities” with respect to that immediate response and restoration. This following three short sections are pitched at a general level, with specifics to China provided by way a short conclusion.

III

To talk about known errors and vulnerabilities to avoid seems incongruous in the context of the pervasive uncertainties found in the midst of major disasters. Real-time surprises and shocks are frequent in flooding, wildfires, earthquakes, and disease outbreaks, among other major disruptions and failures.

Also well-documented, however, is the urgency, clarity and logic about what to do by way of just-in-time interventions in some of these cases. Despite surprises, sequences of action in these instances are clear, urgent and known to front-line staff; and with them, certain errors to be avoided are also evident as well as the vulnerabilities posed if not avoided beforehand. This is especially true when it comes to known sequences with respect to restoring electricity, water, telecoms and roads after, say, an earthquake.

IV

Vulnerabilities arise because the interconnectivities between and among infrastructures, when shifting from latent before an emergency to manifest during and after the disaster, can well invalidate existing response planning and preparedness. The emergency changes or multiplies the range of contacts, communications and negotiations required to produce new and unforeseen options to respond. Where and when so, infrastructures are by definition under-prepared and under-resourced to match their capabilities to their demands.

More specifically with respect to known errors:

  • Under conditions of such changed interconnectivity, it would be an error for infrastructure operators and emergency managers not to establish lateral communications with one another and undertake improvisational and shared restoration activities where needed, even if no official arrangement exists to do so.
  • In addition to these front-line errors, there are also errors of anticipation and planning. In particular, it would be a management error not to provide robust and contingent inter-infrastructure communication capabilities, including phone connections between the control rooms of interconnected infrastructures. This communication, it has been demonstrated, is greatly facilitated by establishing lateral inter-infrastructure personnel contacts prior to emergencies
  • It would also be an error not to have some contingent resources for restoration and initial recovery activities such as lorries, portable generators and movable cell towers in differing locations that would be made available across infrastructures if needed, particularly where chokepoints of interconnected infrastructures are adjacent to each other.

There are other known errors, but the above three are sufficient to draw important implications with regard to inter-infrastructural vulnerabilities to be anticipated before, during and after a disaster.

V

Four of the significant implications are:

1. Avoiding these known errors are not to be equated to “risk management.” Indeed, they should have their very own, different funding sources and programs.

2. That earmarked funding should be allocated to already existing units and organizations focused on interconnectivities between and among infrastructures. In our experience, this means focusing well beyond the official emergency management structures at the local, regional and national levels. Instead, you are looking for existing initiatives that have already “seen the light” by focusing on interconnectivities in their own right and right from the start.

3. Typical discussions of infrastructure vulnerabilities focus on physical components, like corrosion in gas pipelines. The vulnerabilities of interest here, however, begin when the interconnected infrastructures fail to anticipate the need for these special capacities in those cases of shifting or shifted interconnectivities, like the need for lateral communications beyond official channels as a known error to avoid.

4. Without prior contacts, communication  channels and contingent resources already in place beforehand, the infrastructures will focus on their own intra-infrastructure priorities, tasks and responsibilities in the emergency. If inter-infrastructural connectivities are instead a priority, real-time corrections are hampered by lack of prior error avoidance and attention.

VI

So what, with respect to China?

Four obvious questions, for which I don’t pretend to have any kind of answer, are:

–Do existing institutions facilitate lateral communications and horizontal micro-coordination even if (especially if) they occur outside official emergency management infrastructures, be they in rural or urban areas?

–Are formal and informal communications systems robust even when baseline telecoms are down, be they in rural or urban areas?

–Are repositories of key infrastructure back-ups readily available, particularly where chokepoints of two or more infrastructures are co-located in urban or rural areas?

–Are existing initiatives focused on vulnerabilities of interconnected infrastructures in the face of urban or rural disasters supported not only by funds and staff, but new information and findings?

Note by this point, in case it needs saying, that in none of this am I suggesting the focus start, let alone, end with the HSR system.


My thanks to Paul Schulman for working out and providing some of the wording . Any errors still remain mine.

Thinking infrastructurally about: what is not said, but could be, in pastoralist development; resilience in pastoralist settings; in-kind compensation to herders; and rangeland carrying capacity


1. Thinking infrastructurally about what is not said, but could be, in pastoralist development

(1) “We must fight for the expansion of pastoralism as a universal public infrastructure, just as is now being done for universally available electricity.”

(2) “Government agencies and donors working in pastoralism ask to be overhauled so as to meet pastoralist needs faster and more effectively.”

(3) “Pastoralists explain their responses to government and donor initiatives this way: ‘We corrected your design problems on the ground. Our job as reliability professionals, after all, is to protect you, too.'”

(4) “We herding professionals refuse to play the game conjured up by you outside analysts that starts with your tables and numbers of livestock. Why? Because your follow-on question is almost immediately: ‘But who owns the livestock?’ And, sooner than a blink of the eye, we are down to: ‘But what about the old woman with 5 goats or fewer?’

As if to ask us: ‘What are you going to do about these inequalities?’ And leaving us hardly any time to reply that, well, the most ethical thing in response is to see if there are more useful ways to think about this problem than one starting with livestock owned and held.”


2. Thinking infrastructurally about resilience in pastoralist settings

I

The opposite of the coping herder, who can only react to external shocks, is the resilient herder, who bounces back. But is that true? Both occur at the individual level, but from an infrastructure perspective, the opposite of the individual is something like “team situational awareness” in its control centers, not another individual herder who is “non-resilient.”

We observed the professionals in control rooms of critical infrastructures undertaking four types of resilience at their system level, each varying by stage of system operations:

Table 1. Different Types of System Resilience

  • Professionals adjusting back to within de jure or de facto bandwidths to continue normal operations (precursor resilience);
  • Restoration from disrupted operations (temporary loss of service) back to normal operations by the professionals (restoration resilience);
  • Immediate emergency response (its own kind of resilience) after system failure but often involving other professionals from different from systems; and
  • Recovery of the system to a new normal by reliability professionals along with others, including new stakeholders (recovery resilience)

Resilience this way is a set of options, processes and strategies undertaken by the system’s real-time managers and tied to the state of system operations in which they find themselves. Resilience differs depending on whether the large sociotechnical system is in normal operations versus disrupted operations versus failed operations versus recovered operations. (Think of pastoralist systems here as critical infrastructure.)

Resilience, as such, is not a single property of the system to be turned on or off as and when needed. Nor is it, as a system feature, reducible to anything like individual “resilient” herders, though such herders exist.

II

So what?

What you take to be the loss of the herd, a failure in pastoralist operations that you say comes inevitably with drought, may actually be perceived and treated by pastoralists themselves as a temporary disruption after which operations are to be restored. While you, the outsider, can say their “temporary” really isn’t temporary these days, it is the herders’ definition of “temporary” that matters when it comes to their real-time reliability.

Herder systems that maintain normal operations are apt to demonstrate what we call precursor resilience. Normal doesn’t mean what happens when there are no shocks to the system. Shocks happen all the time, and normal operations are all about responding to them in such a way as to ensure they don’t lead to temporary system disruption or outright system failure. Shifting from one watering point, when a problem arises there, to another within a range of good-enough fallbacks, is one such strategy. Labelling this, “coping,” seriously misrepresents the active system management going on.

Pastoralist systems can and do experience temporary stoppages in their service provision—raiders seize livestock, remittances don’t arrive, off-take of livestock products is interrupted, lightning triggers a veldt fire—and here the efforts at restoring conditions back to usual is better termed restoration resilience. Access to alternative feed stocks or sources of livelihood may be required in the absence of grazing and watering fallbacks normally available.

So too resilience as a response to shocks looks very different by way of management strategies when the shocks lead to system failure and recovery from that failure. In these circumstances, an array of outside, inter-organizational resources and personnel—public, private, NGO, humanitarian—are required in addition to the resources of the pastoralist herders. These recovery arrangements and resources are unlike anything marshaled by way of precursor or restoration resiliencies within the herder communities themselves.

III

There is nothing predetermined in the Table 1 sequence. Nothing says it is inevitable that the failed system recovers to a new normal (indeed the probability of system failure in recovery can be higher than in normal operations). It is crucial, nevertheless, to distinguish recovery from any new normal. To outsiders, it may look like some of today’s pastoralist systems are in unending recovery, constantly trying to catch up with one drought or disaster after another. The reality may be that some systems—not all!—are already at a new normal, operating with a very different combination of options, strategies and resources than before.

If you think of resilience in a pastoralist system as “the system’s capability in the face of its reliability mandates to withstand the downsides of uncertainty as well as exploit the upsides of new possibilities and opportunities that emerge in real time,” then they are able to do so because of being capable to undertake the different types of resiliencies listed here, contingent on the stage of operations herders as a collectivity find themselves.

Or to put the key point from the other direction, a system demonstrating precursor resilience, restoration resilience, emergency response coordination and recovery resilience is the kind of system better able to withstand the downsides of shocks and uncertainty and exploit their upsides. Here too, nothing predetermines that every pastoralist system will exhibit all four resiliencies, if and when their states of operation change.

Finally, a mistake to avoid. When response and recovery are difficult to separate or these “stages” occur together, then response and recovery resiliences are also hard to tease apart and separate out. The danger is that “resilience” may be relegated only to the planning for the mitigation of longer-term recovery efforts.


3. Rethinking the role of in-kind transfers in rural and herding settings

I

Three recent entries in Ian Scoones’ blog, Zimbabweland, raise for me a way of rethinking the longstanding notion in pastoralist studies of “in-kind compensation,” now within the current settings.[1]

One entry talks about contributing goats instead of cash to a rural rotational savings group. Another spoke of parents who contribute their management time and skills to rural projects whose laborers are paid by the parents’ children. A third entry talks about people repaying their creditors with tobacco rather than cash.

Those who point to the relentless spread of the cash economy can and do point to herders who were once compensated in the form of, say, a calf or lamb, but are now paid in the monetized form of wages. I want to suggest that the payment-in-kind in the preceding paragraph need not be seen as reversion to past practices because the cash economy has somehow failed, but because in-kind transfers practiced in the past are fit-for-purpose in the cash economy as well.

II

I work in the field of infrastructure studies. A shift from automated (electronic, digital) operations to manual, hands-on operations triggered by an incident is often described as reverting to the older practice or earlier technology. The telemetry shows an automatic shut-off isn’t working; a crew member is sent into the field to turn it on/off by hand or other means.

But it is misleading to think of that example as reversion to past practices. Why? Because the shifts from (more) automated to (more) manual operations are with respect to the today’s system and their standards of system reliability, not the earlier ones. The system in my example hasn’t failed because it resorts to manual operations. Indeed, the latter are instead an essential part of keeping today’s system continuously reliable, even during turbulent events.

III

A perfect example of in-kind transfers having this function in the cash economy comes from one of the blogs: “The flow of food and other agricultural goods (vegetables, meat and so on) from land reform areas is significant, and essential for food security and social protection in urban areas of Zimbabwe, as well as in communal areas where many settlers originally came from.”

If I am reading the blog entry correctly, food security won’t be as reliable as it is without these in-kind transfers–even leaving open the question of whether food security in the past was more or less reliable than now.

IV

But what about rural herders and pastoralists in particular? Of course, there is increased commodification and monetization of practices from the rural past to the rural present. But that is not to the point here.

Even where there are waged herders, it still may be, e.g., women or others provide unpaid labor with respect to caring for pregnant, calving or injured livestock.[2] More generally (and I could be wrong), the persistence of in-kind transfers within a cash economy may be more about local justice than it is about the global injustices of the cash nexus.[3]

—-

[1] See “Financing agriculture: what are the challenges and opportunities in Zimbabwe?,” “Managing money: savings and investment in Zimbabwean agriculture,” and “The changing remittance economy in Zimbabwe” (accessed online at, among other links, https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2024/01/29/managing-money-savings-and-investment-in-zimbabwean-agriculture/)

[2] Linda Pappagallo (2024). Recasting tenure and labour in non-equilibrium environments: Making the case for “high-reliability” pastoral institutions. Land Use Policy 138: 5 (accessed online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837723005008)

[3] I touch upon how the practices of local justice systems remain highly salient in globalized settings in http://When Complex is as Simple as it Gets: Guide for Recasting Policy and Management in the Anthropocene


4. Thinking infrastructurally about rangeland carrying capacity

I

The key problem in my view with the notion of “rangeland carrying capacity” is the assumption that it’s about livestock. That notion invites you to conjure up livestock shoulder-to-shoulder on a parcel of land and then ask you: How could this not be a physical limit on the number of livestock per unit of land? You can’t pack anymore on it and that has to be a capacity constraint. Right?

Wrong. Livestock numbers on a piece of land are not a system. The number of its pipes, rods and valves are not an operating nuclear power plant. Yes, livestock systems that provide continuous and important services (like meat, milk, wool. . .) have limits. But these limits are set by managing physical constraints, be it LSU/ha or not. More, this management combines with managing other constraints like access to markets, remittances for household members abroad, nearby land encroachment, and much else.

Can herders make management mistakes? Of course. That is why pastoralists-to-pastoralists learning is so important.

From this perspective, it’s not “rangeland carrying capacity” we should be talking about, but “rangeland management capacity”. Or better yet, “rangeland management capacities,” as there is not just one major type of pastoralism, but many different pastoralist systems of production and provision of livestock-related services.